This year we watched history in the making as the San Francisco Giants made an unprecendented run for Baseball glory. As we will discover; as uncanny as this victory was for the Giants, it was far from unpredictable. In the five instances where the league champion swept its foe-dating back to when the league championship series was expanded to a seven game series; in only one instance did that team go on to win the world series. It was done by the 1995 Atlanta Braves as they swept the Cincinnati Reds in the NLCS and went on to defeat the Cleveland Indians in six games in the world series. This was not the case in the other instances. It seems to me a team is better off losing at least one game in the league championship series if they intend to win in the world series.
CASE IN POINT: 2012 Detroit Tigers - Swept the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Lost the world series to the San Francisco Giants in four games. San Francisco won the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games. They also beat the Cincinnati Reds in five games in the division series.
CASE IN POINT: 2007 Colorado Rockies - The Rockies swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS and went on to be swept by the Boston Red Sox who won the ALCS in seven games.
CASE IN POINT: 2006 Detroit Tigers - The Tigers swept the Oakland Athletics in the ALCS and went on to lose the world series in five games to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals beat their foe in the NLCS (New York Mets) in seven games.
CASE IN POINT: 1990 Oakland Athletics - The Athletics swept the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS and went on to get swept by the Cincinnati Reds in the world series. The Reds beat the Pittsburgh Pirates in six games in the NLCS.
Only the 2006 Tigers managed to win one game in the world series after sweeping their opponent in the league championship series. It's also interesting to note that the winners of the world series in each of these years also took at least six games to win in the league championship series. This suggests to me that when a team which sweeps in the LCS and plays a team who goes at least six games in there LCS; the team which took longer to win has the upper hand going into the world series.
Now lets check out how the numbers change when a team loses at least one game in the league championship series. In league championship series play since the expansion of the series to a best of seven playoff, (1985) fourteen teams have lost only one game while going on to win the American or National League Championships. Of those 14, nine have gone on to win the world series and only five became the runners up.
Based on baseball's history since 1985, (the expansion of the LCS to a best of seven showdown) teams which sweep their opponents in the LCS have a twenty percent chance of winning. (These numbers are in no way scientific. Only based on recent baseball history.) Or only 20% of teams which have swept in the LCS have actually gone on to win the world series. My theory dictates this number goes up or down based on how many games it took for their opponents to reach the world series. The more games played in the LCS vs. a team who swept gives better odds to the team which took longer to win in order to make it to the world series.
When a team loses only one game in the LCS, the odds of winning the world series increase dramatically. In this case teams have a 64.3% chance of winning the world series. That's a 44.3% increase just by losing a single game.
Call it October voodoo or magic or plainly a team on fire at the right time but history does not lie and more often than not is doomed to repeat itself and I think 2012 is a perfect example of that.